Investment Benchmark

Daniel Kahneman, in his book Thinking, Fast and Slow, recommends people to anchor their predictions on a plausible base rate. Here is a collection of the "base rates" on the venture capital markets.

Return

S&P500's performance outruns p50 VCs from 2020 to 2010. And we need to be better than p75 to outrun S&P500.

Winner takes most.	VC winners win bigger. (source)

Exits

While acquisitions account for the highest number of VC deal exits (65% in 2021), public listings account for 90% of the total exit value. (source)

At what point in the fundraising journey are most startups acquired?

Seed-to-IPO funnel

Private Market Cap vs. Public

Most US companies are private